Cyberpunk 2077 - It is ‘Free Talk Friday’! - Rules 1 and 6 currently have relaxed moderation

It is ‘Free Talk Friday’! - Rules 1 and 6 currently have relaxed moderation
Statistical Analysis of the Murder Rate of Night City
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It is ‘Free Talk Friday’! - Rules 1 and 6 currently have relaxed moderation

Posted: 08 Oct 2020 09:00 PM PDT

Hey Choombas,

As per the title, it is currently 'Free Talk Friday' and this means that there will be relaxed moderation of rules 1 and 6.

This means that you can post your random Cyberpunk 2077 discussions, even if they may not be OC/making a new point.

A couple of examples are:

Basic polls, like, 'What lifepath are you choosing?'
Hype posts, like, 'This is Why I'm so Excited for Cyberpunk 2077
Battlestation posts, sharing your PC or console setup with a Cyberpunk 2077 theme

We will also be relaxing our moderation of rule 6, which means that you can post your Cyberpunk 2077 themed memes! Please note that they will still be subject to removal due to user reports.

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Statistical Analysis of the Murder Rate of Night City

Posted: 08 Oct 2020 07:03 PM PDT

How violent is Night City, exactly? How many people are murdered?

TL:DR at the bottom. Bold text throughout for major points.

Intro

If CD Projekt Red has tried to make anything clear, it's that Night City is an awful place. If you're anything like me, your first question is, "Yes, but how awful exactly?" Well, we can actually come up with some rough estimates now. And boy oh boy, are these going to be rough estimates. You have been warned.

This whole post rests on information from The World of Cyberpunk 2077 (an excellent read, incidentally), the lore book they created, and a few snippets from gameplay we've seen. I'll quote you the most important piece, which is from the lore book:

"Over two hundred people die in confrontations with the police every month, and an unknown number die every day in gang skirmishes and unrecorded combat sweeps performed by private corporate forces. For every ten criminals killed, one NCPD officer loses his life in the line of duty [. . .]"

Let's unpack this. (Warning: ballpark figures ahead!)

The Night City Police

Statistics vary, but the real world USA has approximately 1,200 deaths due to police actions every year. This means that Night City, at 2,400 deaths, has twice the kill rate as the United States. All of it. In a single city.

Night City probably has a population between 6-12 million, given lore sources and population growth over time. This means Night City's police killing ratio is roughly 60-120 times that of the United States.

The civilian-to-cop death ratio is somewhat similar too: 20 people are killed by cops for every cop killed in Night City, as compared to 7.32/1 for real world USA. This is important, because I believe this means Cyberpunk 2077 operates somewhat like our world: human behaviors appear pretty much the same, just upscaled tremendously. For example, the cops pretty much act like cops. They don't kill indiscriminately, and follow the law at least somewhat. After all, Inspector Stints seemed pretty uneasy about killing Jackie and V in the Street Kid preview.

The United States has a murder rate of 5 per 100,000 over the past few years. A 60-120 times increase means Night City would have a murder rate of 300-600/100,000, or 0.3% - 0.6% of the population each year.

This is my bare minimum murder rate for Night City.

The Gangs

But first we have to account for the gangs of Night City, which are far more powerful than in real life. I could arbitrarily make up numbers of how much worse, but I think the best way is to simply upscale statistics from the real world. Therefore, if the NCPD kills 60-120 times as many people as compared to real life, so does the general population.

(Note: the Night City police have a higher kill/death ratio, as stated above. The NCPD kills 2.75 times more criminals for every cop they lose as compared to the real world. You could make the argument that all the death rates down below should be divided by 2.75, as the police are more efficient in the Cyberpunk universe, and there is no evidence that gangs are equally as effective. However, the lore says some gangs have corporate support and military grade cyberware. All in all, I believe it is best to say everybody in Night City is really good at killing, and simply upscale by 60-120 times.

I will first use Los Angeles as a baseline, to keep as many factors possible the same. Los Angeles had an all time high murder rate of 34 per 100,000, meaning Cyberpunk is between ~2,000-4,000/100,000.

Fortunately for us (and unfortunately for people who live there), we DO have a place where gangs are an extremely powerful presence: Mexico. Tijuana, Mexico, has the highest murder rate in the world at 134/100,000. This translates to ~8,000-16,000/100,000 murder rate for Night City.

Considering all the data above, Night City has a murder rate between ~600-16,000/100,000 a year, depending what murder rate you use.

Intermission

Let's stop a moment and talk about these numbers. From what I have calculated so far, this means about 0.6% to 16.0% of the population of Night City dies from violence each year - and this isn't even factoring in the corporations yet. In comparison, Tijuana, the worst city on the planet for murder, loses 0.134% population each year.

This seems insane, but remember the background this takes place in: 1/3 of the US population-100 million people-died during the collapse of the Unites States in the 90's to 2000's. The Fourth Corporate war broke the world and put most everything on hiatus for about 30 years. There are laws in the New United States allowing you to preemptively kill someone if you think they are going to harm you. Guns are beyond ubiquitous. Everyone in this world lives with constant death around.

This is a violent, violent world, which has been reinforced by the gameplay. You have Scavengers literally hunting people as a daily occurrence. Corporations kill at will, and gangs slaughter people in the streets. You have an attack helicopter attacking a Pacifica building in broad daylight. All this makes these numbers realistic to me. And remember-Night City is supposed to be the worst of the worst, an international hotspot for corporations, gangs, and everything bad in-between.

Back to the show

The Corporations

Lastly, we have the corporations, which, unfortunately, I have essentially zero data for. The only mention in The World of Cyberpunk 2077 is that any and all crimes on corporate property is completely out of hands of the police.

Since I have almost no information to work with, I think the best assumption is that corporations kill as many people as the police and gangs do. Gameplay previews and lore put pretty even focus on both, so I think it's fair to say they are equals.

Final Verdict

Adding everything up, Night City has a murder rate between 1,200-32,000 per 100,000 a year. This is 1.2% to 32% of the population, or 144,000 to 1,920,000 deaths, depending on the population.

This is an enormous range of numbers, and while we can rule out the extreme high end - as no one would be left alive in Night City- it leaves us with a problem: Which stats are the best ones to use?

Night City is located in the real world Morro Bay, which inspired Mike Pondsmith. He also lives in California, so I feel it best to use California as a base. This keeps as many factors the same as possible. I also think using Los Angeles's worst murder rate is appropriate, seeing as Night City is also supposed to be the worst. Finally, a population of 12 million seems the most reasonable, to account for fifty years of population growth and the megalopolis that Night City has become.

Therefore, my best guess is that Night City has a murder rate of approximately 2,000-6,000 per 100,000, or 2-6% of the population each year, a grand total of 240,000-720,000 deaths. The average is 4%; 480,000 deaths.

Population would be stabilized by:

Corporations constantly bringing new people in.
Immigration to an international free zone and major world city.
Decreased death due to diseases and other issues.
Higher birth rates that are common in high poverty areas.

Again, this entire thesis is based on some very shaky assumptions. You can widely change the numbers around, but this is what makes the most sense to me. Take it with a grain of salt. Or a pound.

Thanks for reading.